Here’s the state of the tournament after two group matches per team (for the groups that have completed two rounds). The standings snapshot is below:
Teams already eliminated
Five teams are mathematically out before the final group game thanks to the new head-to-head tiebreak system, which has produced some early eliminations despite the expanded 32-team knockout field. (Reuters)
Eliminated:
- Haiti (Group C)
- Turkey (Group D)
- Tunisia (Group F)
- Jordan (Group J)
- Panama (Group L) (Reuters)
The surprise here is that teams can be eliminated even while still only three points behind third place because head-to-head results now take precedence over goal difference. (Reuters)
Teams already through to the Round of 32
These nations have guaranteed progression regardless of what happens in their final group match:
- Mexico (Group A winner secured)
- United States (Group D winner secured)
- Germany (Group E winner secured)
- France
- Norway
- Argentina
- Colombia
A notable story is Norway, who have reached the knockout stage for the first time since 1998. (SB Nation)
Big-name teams under the most pressure
1. Belgium
Belgium are in genuine danger. Two draws leave them on just two points in Group G, behind both Egypt and Iran. They must beat New Zealand and may still need help depending on other results and third-place rankings. (The Australian)
2. Portugal
Portugal have four points and are not in immediate danger, but they have not yet qualified. Their final match against Colombia is effectively a group-decider. A loss could leave them sweating over qualification position and potentially third-place calculations. (Reuters)
3. Uruguay
Two draws from two matches is not where Uruguay expected to be. Spain lead Group H, while Cape Verde are level with Uruguay on points. Uruguay still control their destiny but need a strong final performance. (The Australian)
4. Croatia
Croatia have three points but sit third in Group L behind England and Ghana. They are not in crisis, but a failure to beat Ghana could leave them depending on the best-third-place rankings. (The Australian)
5. Switzerland and Canada
Neither is in danger of elimination, but Group B remains completely open. Both sit on four points and neither has clinched advancement yet. The winner of their head-to-head finale will likely top the group. (NBC Sports)
Biggest surprises so far
Morocco
Morocco are unbeaten and level with Brazil atop Group C after defeating Scotland. They look well-positioned to advance. (NBC Sports)
Egypt
Egypt lead Group G ahead of Belgium and Iran. Few predicted them to be in first place after two rounds. (NBC Sports)
Norway
Two wins from two and already qualified. They have been one of the tournament’s strongest performers so far. (Houston Chronicle)
Ghana
Ghana sit level with England on four points in Group L and are on course for qualification. (https://england-2026.com/)
Which groups are still the most chaotic?
Group G (Egypt, Iran, Belgium, New Zealand) is the most open. First place has four points, fourth place has one, and all four teams can still realistically advance. (NBC Sports)
Group H is almost as tight, with Spain on four points and the other three teams separated by just one point. (NBC Sports)
Group B remains completely undecided with Canada and Switzerland tied on four points and Bosnia and Qatar still alive for a third-place berth. (NBC Sports)
The biggest headline after Round 2 is that the tournament’s traditional powers—Mexico, the United States, Germany, France and Argentina—have largely taken care of business, while Belgium are the major heavyweight facing the most serious risk heading into the final group matchday. (The Australian)
