The expanded 48-team format has created more opportunities for smaller and mid-tier nations to make noise, and after the first two rounds of most groups there are several genuine surprise stories.
Exceeding expectations
Cape Verde — the tournament’s biggest underdog story
Cape Verde arrived as one of the smallest nations in the field and many expected them to be battling merely for respectability. Instead, they’ve drawn both of their matches: 0-0 against Spain and 2-2 against Uruguay. They remain alive for a knockout place heading into the final group game. Reuters described their draw with Uruguay as a historic performance built on confidence and tactical discipline. (Reuters)
For a country of roughly half a million people making its World Cup debut, taking points from two former world champions is extraordinary. (The Guardian)
Morocco
Morocco are no longer a complete surprise after their 2022 semifinal run, but they were still considered outsiders against Brazil in Group C. A draw with Brazil followed by a win over Scotland leaves them level on points with the Brazilians and in a strong position to qualify. The performance level suggests they are again capable of a deep run. (GMA Network)
South Korea
South Korea opened with a win over Czechia and, despite losing narrowly to Mexico, remain second in Group A with qualification very much in their hands. Given that Mexico were expected to dominate the group, Korea’s position is encouraging. (NBC Sports)
Iran
Two draws from two games may not sound spectacular, but holding both Egypt and Belgium has put Iran in a strong position. They remain unbeaten and have frustrated opponents that many expected to finish ahead of them. The 0-0 draw with Belgium was particularly significant. (NBC Sports)
Japan
Japan have quietly put together one of the best campaigns among the Asian teams. A draw with the Netherlands and a convincing win over Tunisia leave them level on points at the top of Group F. Their final match against Sweden could decide first place. Based on current form, Japan look capable of reaching the knockout rounds comfortably.
Holding their own
Egypt
Four points from two matches has Egypt leading Group G. They are not a traditional minnow, but topping a group containing Belgium after two rounds is an impressive achievement.
Ghana
Ghana’s opening win over Panama means they have already banked three points and enter tougher fixtures against England and Croatia with a realistic chance of advancing.
Australia
Australia beat Turkey before losing to the United States. Three points from two matches keeps them firmly in the race for qualification.
Teams struggling to get points
Qatar
After drawing Switzerland, Qatar were hammered 6-0 by Canada. They sit bottom of Group B with one point and a goal difference of -6, leaving qualification highly unlikely.
Tunisia
Tunisia have suffered two heavy defeats, including a 5-1 loss to Sweden and a 4-0 defeat against Japan. Zero points and a -8 goal difference make them one of the tournament’s biggest disappointments so far.
Turkey
Turkey have lost both matches and failed to score, leaving them bottom of Group D and facing elimination.
Haiti
Grouped with Brazil, Morocco and Scotland, Haiti faced a difficult assignment. Two defeats and no goals scored mean they are effectively on the brink.
South Africa and Curaçao
Neither side has won a game. South Africa at least earned a draw against Czechia, while Curaçao’s point against Ecuador has kept faint hopes alive after the heavy defeat to Germany.
Biggest overachievers so far
If I were ranking the surprise packages after the opening rounds:
- Cape Verde
- Morocco
- Iran
- Japan
- South Korea
Cape Verde stand alone at the top of that list. In a tournament designed to give smaller nations a bigger stage, they have become the clearest example of how the expanded World Cup can produce genuine Cinderella stories. (Reuters)
