The 2026 World Cup has produced its biggest day of shocks so far, with both Germany and Netherlands being eliminated in the Round of 32 on penalty shootouts. Their departures dramatically reshape the knockout tournament and remove two of Europe’s traditional heavyweights before the last 16 has even begun.
Germany’s exit: another painful chapter
Germany were widely regarded as one of the tournament favourites after winning Group E, but they were unable to overcome Paraguay. After a 1-1 draw, they lost the penalty shootout 4-3.
Several factors contributed to the upset:
- Germany dominated possession but struggled to create enough clear-cut chances.
- Paraguay defended with tremendous discipline and remained dangerous on the counter-attack.
- Germany missed three penalties, ending their long-standing reputation as one of international football’s most reliable shootout teams.
- This continues a worrying trend of underachievement at recent World Cups despite possessing enormous talent. (Managing Madrid)
Questions will now be asked about coach Julian Nagelsmann, although he has already stated he intends to continue if backed by the German federation. (The Guardian)
Netherlands’ heartbreak
The Netherlands appeared to be heading into the Round of 16 after taking the lead against Morocco through Cody Gakpo.
Instead:
- Morocco equalised deep into stoppage time.
- Extra time produced no winner.
- Morocco held their nerve to win the penalty shootout.
- Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou again proved decisive in a major tournament, reinforcing his reputation as one of the world’s finest penalty specialists. (Al Jazeera)
For Dutch supporters, the defeat is especially painful because this squad looked capable of reaching at least the quarter-finals after topping Group F.
What these results mean
The elimination of Germany and the Netherlands has transformed the competition.
- Paraguay now has a realistic opportunity to reach the quarter-finals after one of the greatest victories in its modern football history.
- Morocco continues its remarkable rise following its historic 2022 World Cup run, proving that it belongs among the world’s elite.
- Other favourites such as England, Spain, Portugal and Argentina now face a slightly more open path through the knockout bracket.
- The results underline how little separates teams once the knockout rounds begin—one mistake, one save or one penalty can end even the strongest team’s campaign. (euronews)
Perhaps the biggest lesson from these upsets is that the expanded 48-team World Cup has not diluted the quality of the knockout stage. Instead, it has produced greater competitive balance, with nations such as Morocco and Paraguay demonstrating that tactical discipline, defensive organisation and composure under pressure can overcome even the most decorated footballing nations.
How these two shock eliminations change the chances of England, Spain, Argentina and Brazil winning the 2026 World Cup.
The exits of Germany and the Netherlands are likely to be remembered as the moment this World Cup became completely unpredictable. Both teams topped their groups and entered the knockout stage as genuine contenders, yet both were eliminated on penalties by highly organised opponents. (ESPN UK)
These results have significantly altered the balance of the tournament.
England
England may now see a clearer route to the latter stages than they did at the start of the knockout phase.
Their biggest strengths remain:
- A balanced squad with quality in every position.
- Match winners capable of producing moments in tight knockout games.
- Experience from reaching the latter stages of recent major tournaments.
The psychological effect is also important. Seeing two European giants eliminated reminds England that there are no easy games, but it also removes one traditional heavyweight from the list of possible opponents.
Their Round of 32 match against DR Congo now becomes even more significant. Avoiding complacency will be essential because Morocco and Paraguay have already shown what disciplined underdogs can achieve. (The Guardian)
Spain
Spain may now be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Although they did not always dominate the group stage, they have steadily improved and possess perhaps the tournament’s most technically gifted midfield.
If Spain continue progressing, they no longer have to worry about encountering Germany or the Netherlands later in the competition.
Spain’s strengths include:
- Exceptional ball retention.
- Young attacking players capable of changing games.
- One of the strongest defensive records among the remaining favourites.
Their challenge will be converting possession into goals against well-organised defensive teams such as Austria before potentially facing even tougher opponents. (SB Nation)
Argentina
Argentina’s position has improved considerably.
As defending champions, they already possessed tremendous tournament experience, and now several major European rivals have disappeared from their side of the competition.
Their advantages include:
- Outstanding leadership.
- Tactical flexibility.
- Calmness in knockout football.
- Confidence built from winning major trophies.
Their Round of 32 meeting with Cape Verde still deserves respect, however. The tournament has already demonstrated that smaller nations are capable of frustrating favourites for long periods. (SB Nation)
Brazil
Brazil survived one enormous scare.
Japan pushed them all the way before Brazil secured a late 2-1 victory, highlighting that even the five-time champions are vulnerable. (Yahoo Sports)
The positive for Brazil is that they have already experienced knockout pressure.
Many coaches say surviving one difficult game can strengthen a team for the remainder of the tournament. Brazil now know they must improve defensively and become more clinical if they are to lift the trophy.
New favourites to win the World Cup
Based on current form and the changing draw, the leading contenders now appear to be:
| Rank | Team | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | Outstanding squad depth, attacking quality and impressive knockout performance so far. (Goal) |
| 2 | Argentina | Defending champions with vast tournament experience. (Goal) |
| 3 | England | Balanced squad and an increasingly favourable route. (Sky Sports) |
| 4 | Spain | Technical excellence and improving momentum. (Goal) |
| 5 | Brazil | Still among the elite, but their narrow escape against Japan exposed weaknesses. (Yahoo Sports) |
The dark horses have become genuine contenders
Perhaps the biggest story is the emergence of several teams that are no longer simply “surprise packages.”
- Morocco have now defeated one of Europe’s strongest sides and possess the belief gained from their remarkable 2022 World Cup run.
- Paraguay have shown outstanding resilience by eliminating Germany on penalties.
- Norway have quietly progressed with confidence.
- Canada continue to inspire the home crowds and could ride that momentum deep into the tournament. (Yahoo Sports)
If England and Spain handle the pressure while Brazil rediscover their best form, the tournament now appears more open than at any point since it began. With Germany and the Netherlands gone, there is no overwhelming favourite, and every remaining heavyweight knows that one poor performance could send them home just as quickly.
