Using the actual 2026 World Cup groups from the draw, here’s how I’d project each group today. The draw produced several balanced groups (D, F, K, L) and a few where one favourite clearly stands above the rest.
Group A
Teams: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia (UEFA Playoff D winner)
- Winner: Mexico
- Runner-up: South Korea
- Dark horse: Czechia
- Upset probability: 35%
Mexico gets a favorable draw and benefits from host-country support. South Korea are usually difficult to eliminate in group play.
Group B
Teams: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
- Winner: Switzerland
- Runner-up: Canada
- Dark horse: Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Upset probability: 40%
Switzerland’s consistency in major tournaments gives them the edge, but Canada at home could absolutely finish first.
Group C
Teams: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
- Winner: Brazil
- Runner-up: Morocco
- Dark horse: Scotland
- Upset probability: 20%
Brazil should have too much quality. Morocco’s recent tournament performances make them a dangerous second seed.
Group D
Teams: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
- Winner: Türkiye
- Runner-up: United States
- Dark horse: Paraguay
- Upset probability: 65%
This is one of the toughest groups. Any of the top three could realistically win it.
Group E
Teams: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao
- Winner: Germany
- Runner-up: Ecuador
- Dark horse: Ivory Coast
- Upset probability: 25%
Germany drew one of the more favorable groups among the European giants.
Group F
Teams: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
- Winner: Netherlands
- Runner-up: Japan
- Dark horse: Sweden
- Upset probability: 55%
A very dangerous group. Japan and Sweden are both capable of taking points from the Dutch.
Group G
Teams: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
- Winner: Belgium
- Runner-up: Egypt
- Dark horse: Iran
- Upset probability: 45%
Iran are probably stronger than many casual fans realize. This could become one of the surprise groups.
Group H
Teams: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
- Winner: Spain
- Runner-up: Uruguay
- Dark horse: Cape Verde
- Upset probability: 30%
Spain versus Uruguay is one of the best group-stage matchups of the tournament.
Group I
Teams: France, Senegal, Norway, Intercontinental Playoff Winner 2
- Winner: France
- Runner-up: Norway
- Dark horse: Senegal
- Upset probability: 50%
This may be the strongest group outside of D and K. Norway finally has a chance to make a major breakthrough.
Group J
Teams: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
- Winner: Argentina
- Runner-up: Austria
- Dark horse: Algeria
- Upset probability: 25%
Argentina should control this group, but Austria could quietly finish among the best-performing runner-ups.
Group K
Teams: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, Intercontinental Playoff Winner 1
- Winner: Portugal
- Runner-up: Colombia
- Dark horse: Uzbekistan
- Upset probability: 60%
This feels like a classic trap group. Colombia are good enough to finish first.
Group L
Teams: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
- Winner: England
- Runner-up: Croatia
- Dark horse: Ghana
- Upset probability: 45%
England are deserved favorites, but Croatia remain one of the toughest tournament teams in world football.
My predicted group winners
| Group | Winner |
|---|---|
| A | Mexico |
| B | Switzerland |
| C | Brazil |
| D | Türkiye |
| E | Germany |
| F | Netherlands |
| G | Belgium |
| H | Spain |
| I | France |
| J | Argentina |
| K | Portugal |
| L | England |
Among these, Spain, France, Brazil, England, Portugal, Argentina, and Germany would be my strongest group-winner picks, while Türkiye, Belgium, and the Netherlands are the most vulnerable favourites.
